Banca de DEFESA: THAMIRES FRANCO DA CONCEIÇÃO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : THAMIRES FRANCO DA CONCEIÇÃO
DATE: 25/02/2025
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Online - Google Meet: "meet.google.com/hjx-jcsg-kvm"
TITLE:

ANALYSIS OF SCENARIOS OF EXTREME CLIMATE EVENT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MUNICIPALITIES OF NOVA FRIBURGO AND TERESÓPOLIS AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE

KEY WORDS:

geoprocessing, risk management, climate modeling, agricultural production.

PAGES: 93
BIG AREA: Ciências Agrárias
AREA: Engenharia Agrícola
SUBÁREA: Engenharia de Água e Solo
SPECIALTY: Conservação de Solo e Água
SUMMARY:

Climate change is defined by statistical variations in climate processes and has been observed with greater frequency and intensity, resulting in extreme events. The IPCC report (2023) highlights the human influence, mainly through greenhouse gas emissions, in the intensification of these events on a global scale. Climate forecasts indicate an increase in extreme events in Latin America, with variations in the water regime and warmer nights. In Brazil, especially in the Southeast (study location), complex climate influences cause extreme rainfall. These events trigger economic, social and environmental problems, which may affect food security and public health. With this recurring scenario, there is an increased need for studies on the impacts of extreme rainfall in agricultural production areas through the analysis of historical series using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, seeking actions to prevent and mitigate the risks of erosion (soil loss) and deregulation of ecosystems. Ninety-two agricultural properties were selected in the municipalities of Nova Friburgo and Teresópolis using data from the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) in the state of Rio de Janeiro. These properties were located in the region where the tragedy occurred on January 12, 2011, where 220 mm of precipitation was recorded in 10 hours in the mountainous region, while Nova Friburgo detected a volume of 281.6 mm in 8 hours. After analyzing the properties, it was found that 39 of them (totaling 1,800 ha) had their areas affected due to the occurrence of heavy rains (matrix images containing the location of landslides and floods), resulting in an area of destruction of 74.85 ha (polygons). From these impacted areas, the limits of the agricultural crops obtained using IBGE data for the locations under study were extracted, which estimated a loss of cultivated area (agricultural production analyzed) of 11.44 ha in total. Analyses performed on current images (2024) showed properties that continued their agricultural activities in the regions that suffered the impacts of 2011. However, other properties adapted these regions regarding the regeneration of the post-disaster area, recovering these areas through forest regeneration, removing agricultural cultivation and thus readapting the property to new cultivation and production systems. Future projections (climate events) performed in the research by the MIROC6 and CanESM5 models indicated that this scenario of extreme rainfall may occur again. For the Teresópolis region, precipitation of 857.56 mm was estimated for the year 2058. For the Nova Friburgo region, precipitation ranging from 754.22 to 805.06 mm was estimated for the year 2058. The results presented highlight the importance of climate analysis for agricultural adaptation and risk management regarding the prevention, preparation and mitigation of possible impacts on the rural properties analyzed. This research provides support for strategic decisions, contributing to the sustainability and resilience of these properties in Nova Friburgo and Teresópolis, assisting in the decision-making of Managers and the application of Public Policies aimed at climate change and territorial analysis.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1931586 - SADY JUNIOR MARTINS COSTA DE MENEZES
Externo ao Programa - 2938795 - FABIO CARDOSO DE FREITAS - UFRRJExterno à Instituição - CLEVERSON ALVES DE LIMA - UESC-BA