Analysis of the economic impacts of oil production in the Rio de Janeiro state.
Rio de Janeiro; Productive Structure; Input-output Matrix, GWR.
In the state's current scenario, the Oil and Gas (O&G) sector has been identified as one of the possible solutions to the fiscal crisis. The extractive sector in Rio de Janeiro increased by around 160% between 2000 and 2022; 2019 being the year in which production doubled since the beginning of the period considered. Allied to this, the end of Petrobras' monopoly allowed the entry of new companies and new exploration rules, so that the state and its municipalities obtained higher incomes and investments in their regions, moving local economies. Faced with the economic potential of oil, this project intends to analyze the economic impacts of oil production in the state of Rio de Janeiro (ERJ) and its consequences on the other sectors that make up the Rio de Janeiro production chain. In addition, it intends to analyze the effects of oil revenues collected by municipalities on development at local and state levels. To achieve these objectives, this project will use the regional input-output matrix of the State of Rio de Janeiro, base year 2019, at first, to investigate the impacts and consequences of production and generation of jobs and income in the oil sector in state economy. Knowing that oil production is spatially concentrated, the geographically weighted regression model (GPR) will be used to understand the impacts of oil revenues collected on the development of each of the municipalities in the state of Rio de Janeiro. As preliminary results, it was found that the O&G sector represents approximately one-fifth of the entire Gross Production Value (GVP) of the state economy. Furthermore, it is a key sector for the ERJ economy, being the sector with the highest employment and income multiplier.