Banca de DEFESA: FREDERICO JOSE DE ATHAYDE GUIMARAES

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : FREDERICO JOSE DE ATHAYDE GUIMARAES
DATE: 02/04/2026
TIME: 15:00
LOCAL: sala virtual
TITLE:

Development of an innovative model for the transformation of agriculture in Rio de Janeiro: A non-linear diffusion analysis.

KEY WORDS:

Regional Development; Spatial Economics; Economic History; Machine Learning; Regional Diffusion; Neural Networks.

PAGES: 179
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This dissertation proposes a structural model for analyzing the spatial diffusion of regional development, applied to the states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, with the aim of investigating how structural economic factors propagate across the territory and condition differentiated regional trajectories. It starts from the hypothesis that development is not only the result of isolated local attributes, but of dynamic processes of regional interdependence influenced by neighborhood effects and diffusion mechanisms.

To capture these mechanisms, an empirical approach is developed that integrates a Random Forest adapted to capture fields of local importance and graph neural networks (Graph Convolutional Networks – GCN), allowing the simultaneous modeling of nonlinearities and complex spatial dependencies. The proposed methodology makes it possible to identify patterns of economic diffusion not fully captured by traditional spatial models, in addition to enabling conditional structural simulations to assess regional sensitivity to variations in socioeconomic and infrastructural factors.

The results are interpreted in light of the historical formation of Brazilian regional development, especially the processes of agrarian structure, urbanization, industrialization, and territorial integration that shaped the trajectories of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, allowing for an assessment of the correspondence between empirical diffusion patterns and long-term structural constraints.

By articulating advanced spatial modeling and historical-structural interpretation, the dissertation contributes to an integrated understanding of Brazilian regional development, in addition to proposing new analytical tools for the study of territorial heterogeneity and regional economic diffusion mechanisms.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - ADRIANO MARCOS RODRIGUES FIGUEIREDO - UFMS
Presidente - ***.915.177-** - EVERLAM ELIAS MONTIBELER - UFES
Interna - 1863173 - MARIA VIVIANA DE FREITAS CABRAL