Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: SARAH MOREIRA LORDELO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : SARAH MOREIRA LORDELO
DATE: 05/06/2020
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: https://conferenciaweb.rnp.br/events/qualificacao-ppger-sarah-lordelo
TITLE:

Non-technical losses in Brazilian electricity sector: direct and indirect economic impacts on GDP and proposals of equitable mitigation measures of non-technical losses for consumers and Utilities.

KEY WORDS:

Non-technical losses in Brazilian Electricity Sector, Impacts on Family Consumption and GDP, Equitable Mitigation Measures.

PAGES: 46
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUBÁREA: Economia Regional e Urbana
SPECIALTY: Economia Regional
SUMMARY:

Electricity transmission and distribution processes generate energy losses that impact the efficient functioning of electrical systems. Total energy losses are subdivided into technical and non-technical losses. Technical losses occur naturally due to physical properties that cause the dissipation of part of the energy generated in the transmission lines and other components of the system, being generally stable. Non-technical losses, also called commercial losses, generally occur due to electricity theft, fraud, meter reading errors and defective meters, being related to socioeconomic factors, system corruption and also to managerial aspects of Utilities. The average real and regulatory non-technical losses, weighted on the billed low voltage market, were 15,51% and 12,35%, respectively, in the period from 2008 to 2015. This considerable amount of losses causes a high loss of revenue for the utilities and makes the tariffs less and less reasonable. This happens because the losses are transfer to the consumers up to the limit of regulated commercial losses, at the time of the utilities tariff review. This transfer has direct and indirect impacts for utilities, the government and consumers and generates a vicious cycle of commercial losses. Therefore, one of the objectives of this thesis is to measure these direct and indirect impacts of partial transfer of non-technical electricity losses in the low voltage market on tariff in household consumption and in Brazilian GDP. For this purpose, it was used the input-output methodology and the matrix for 2015 were used with the vector of family consumption disaggregated by income deciles. The results showed that when the amount referring to the cost of commercial losses was not transferred to families and redistributed on consumption basket, it had a direct and indirect impact on the Gross Value of Production (GVP) of R$ 12.889,80 million, which represented a net increase on GVP of R$ 5.097,70 million. This measure would be more equitable and fairer, in addition to leading to more reasonable tariffs. The second objective is, through a bibliometric review, to systematize the measures to mitigate commercial losses hitherto proposed by the literature, in order to identify the predominant research areas and their interconnections, the main papers done and the evolution of the research theme. Finally, through a spatial-temporal econometric model, the objective is to estimate non-technical losses, incorporating socioeconomic and managerial factors as explanatory variables.Using the Hausman test (1978), the most appropriate estimator is defined, by fixed or random effects, and the quality of fit of the different spatial panel models is compared with the model estimated by ANEEL that doesn’t consider the existence of spatial autocorrelation in the SEB, using AIC and BIC criteria. This exercise seeks to verify whether the model used by ANEEL to measure the level of regulated commercial losses of each utility is the most appropriate for the Brazilian Electricity System.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1847490 - JOILSON DE ASSIS CABRAL
Interno - 3028953 - LUCAS SIQUEIRA DE CASTRO
Externa ao Programa - 1694674 - NIAGARA RODRIGUES DA SILVA