Banca de DEFESA: ÉRLON DOMINGUES DA SILVA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ÉRLON DOMINGUES DA SILVA
DATE: 29/07/2025
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Online em meet.google.com/ggd-xtpk-xvw
TITLE:

Sustainable growth in Brazil: Analysis of the degree of decoupling between GDP and greenhouse gas emissions from 1991 to 2021.

KEY WORDS:

Decoupling, sustainable growth, Tapio index.

PAGES: 68
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This dissertation analyzes sustainable growth in Brazil through the degree of
decoupling between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors from 1991 to 2021. The
objective is to investigate, at both federal and regional levels, the relationship between
sectoral GDP variation and CO2 emissions variation, using the Tapio index, which
classifies decoupling into eight possible scenarios. GDP data were obtained from
Ipeadata (IBGE), and emission estimates were sourced from the SEEG platform of the
Climate Observatory. The results show that, in the agricultural sector, strong negative
decoupling predominates, indicating rising emissions alongside declining GDP. The
only year classified as strong decoupling was 2007. Regionally, the South presented
the most environmentally efficient performance, in contrast to the Center-West, where
high emissions were not matched by proportional production output. In the
manufacturing sector, the scenario was more favorable. In seventeen out of the thirty
years analyzed, the Tapio index showed stages of strong, weak, or recessive
decoupling, demonstrating some progress in breaking the link between economic
growth and GHG emissions. However, nine years were classified as strong negative
decoupling, reflecting simultaneous deterioration of environmental and economic
indicators, particularly during the 2010s. The structural shift from an agro-export model
to a green industrialization is presented as a viable strategy for anticipating the
inflection point of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), thus reconciling economic
growth with environmental sustainability. The study highlights the importance of
industrial policies focused on productive modernization based on low-carbon
technologies, as well as the need for long-term planning to foster the transition toward
a green economy. Given Brazil’s relatively clean energy matrix and abundance of
natural resources, a new sustainability-oriented industrialization emerges as a
promising path to align economic development, social inclusion, and environmental
preservation.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 2692876 - ALEXANDRE JERONIMO DE FREITAS
Presidente - 2829205 - DEBORA MESQUITA PIMENTEL
Externo à Instituição - EDUARDO ALBERTO CRESPO - UFRJ
Interno - 1804225 - MARCELO PEREIRA FERNANDES