Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: FERNANDA DE SOUZA ALVES

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : FERNANDA DE SOUZA ALVES
DATE: 14/04/2026
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: http://conferenciaweb.rnp.br/sala/marcelo-panaro-de-moraes-zamith
TITLE:

THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE ON THE FEMICIDE INDEX: A CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS WITHIN THE MÉDIO PARAÍBA REGION OF THE STATE OF RIO DE JANEIRO (2017–2024)

KEY WORDS:

Femicide. Temperature. Gender-Based Violence. Volta Redonda.

PAGES: 50
BIG AREA: Outra
AREA: Multidisciplinar
SUMMARY:

The present research report investigates the correlation between temperature variations and the rates of femicide and domestic violence against women in the municipality of Volta Redonda, located within the Médio Paraíba Region of the State of Rio de Janeiro, encompassing the longitudinal period from 2017 to 2024. The central hypothesis is founded upon the convergence of Thermal Stress Theory and the General Aggression Model (GAM), which postulate that physiological discomfort induced by elevated temperatures acts as a catalyst for aggressive behaviors, mediated by deficits in emotional regulation and cognitive alterations. The primary objective is to determine whether heat spikes and positive climatic anomalies influence the escalation of lethal and non-lethal violence against women within an industrial urban context characterized by heat islands.

The methodology employs a quantitative and correlational approach, utilizing meteorological data from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and criminal statistics from the Institute of Public Security (ISP-RJ), processed through the Python programming language. The statistical techniques applied encompassed the calculation of Spearman's correlation coefficients, linear regression modeling to assess the predictive capacity of temperature on attempted femicides, and Mann-Whitney U tests to compare heatwave periods against days with normative temperatures.

The findings indicated a weak correlation concerning consummated femicides (r = 0.19); however, they revealed a statistically significant relationship between maximum temperature and attempted femicides (p = 0.0413). Notably, the linear regression model indicated an average increase of 0.14 cases for every one-degree Celsius rise in temperature. Seasonality analysis highlighted December as a critical period, suggesting a synergistic overlap of climatic factors with social stressors typical of the holiday season, such as increased alcohol consumption. It is concluded that climate acts as an exacerbating factor within contexts of pre-existing social vulnerability.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1581041 - MARCELO PANARO DE MORAES ZAMITH
Interna - 1673110 - JULIANA MENDES NASCENTE E SILVA ZAMITH